A study of which film was (debatably) the runner-up for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. There are some very notable ‘almost Best Pictures’ over the years, but it's become more common recently for films to fall under what we'll dub as "the frontrunner curse."
My methodology for figuring these out, besides having following the recent races closely, largely involves tallying the Oscar wins and nominations with extra weight for above-the-line wins compared to below-the-line wins. For example, any Best Director win in a split year is more-or-less guaranteed a spot, and writing awards especially alongside acting wins is a huge boost. Some of them might not have won any major Oscars at all.
I also take a close look…
A study of which film was (debatably) the runner-up for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. There are some very notable ‘almost Best Pictures’ over the years, but it's become more common recently for films to fall under what we'll dub as "the frontrunner curse."
My methodology for figuring these out, besides having following the recent races closely, largely involves tallying the Oscar wins and nominations with extra weight for above-the-line wins compared to below-the-line wins. For example, any Best Director win in a split year is more-or-less guaranteed a spot, and writing awards especially alongside acting wins is a huge boost. Some of them might not have won any major Oscars at all.
I also take a close look at the precursor awards, though their importance depends on the year. If a film does better than another at the BAFTAs or Golden Globes or guilds than another, that indicates it was in a stronger position at the time. They aren't essential prerequisites but they are a useful temperature check for what was peaking at what point. All of my justifications and dilemmas are available to read in the notes.
We can go all day on Oscars math which is enough of a headache to conduct for current races, so I may not have accounted for any deadly snubs, i.e. a film that missed out on Best Director, but these are all runner-ups to varying degrees. Some of these had no shot at all because the Best Picture was just that locked. And some of them were literally on the stage accepting their trophies before handing them off to the real winners.
None of these selections are set in stone and I'm happy to switch them out if you have a compelling argument in favour of the next in line or even a different film. My firsthand knowledge goes back to the mid-2000s, so if you were there and recall the types of conversations going on, that can certainly mean more than the track records on paper.
Remember, CODA teaches us that precursors and stats aren't everything. It's all good fun.
See all the Best Picture winners to compare. Which list do you prefer?
Note the And the Runner-Up Is podcast on Oscar runner-ups, including Best Picture.
